tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post6361455752265104359..comments2024-03-02T09:41:35.809-08:00Comments on Donkeylicious - A Blog by Neil Sinhababu and Nicholas Beaudrot: Jim DeMint As Republican Nominee?Neil Sinhababuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03249327186653397250noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-77377917896043985952010-09-20T23:33:23.554-07:002010-09-20T23:33:23.554-07:00Because of fees, Intrade contracts essentially clo...Because of fees, Intrade contracts essentially close at 1 or 99 rather than 0 or 100, so be careful with bidding against low probability events. There is also zero interest on the money that's tied up, plus an additional fee when you buy/sell if you're the price taker.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-53276677940030990122010-09-20T17:33:19.612-07:002010-09-20T17:33:19.612-07:00I think that's right on general principles.
...I think that's right on general principles. <br /><br />For dumb reasons it may be a bit tough to implement. It ties up more capital. Also I don't know if the Intrade system understands that shorting Palin, Romney, and Gingrich is less risky than shorting Palin alone, and way less risky than shorting Palin, the Seahawks, and the Yankees.Neil Sinhababuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03249327186653397250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-29839934631673874172010-09-20T15:06:44.886-07:002010-09-20T15:06:44.886-07:00So I agree with the specific arguments here, but t...So I agree with the specific arguments here, but think the general argument is somewhat different. The GOP Primary is hard to predict because of the very weird way it happens, crowding out by which candidates choose to enter, who wins early contests, etc. So any near-zero probability nominee right now is probably a good buy.<br /><br />But really, I think the lesson is "sell Gingrich / Palin", not buy individual penny stocks.Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14667147687700902147noreply@blogger.com