tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post8207387448471084239..comments2024-03-02T09:41:35.809-08:00Comments on Donkeylicious - A Blog by Neil Sinhababu and Nicholas Beaudrot: Nomination RuminationsNeil Sinhababuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03249327186653397250noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-85179168960948010122011-04-27T09:50:09.462-07:002011-04-27T09:50:09.462-07:00Amanda's logic makes sense once Pawlenty gets ...Amanda's logic makes sense once Pawlenty gets himself into the top tier of candidates. But as of now, <a href="http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/" rel="nofollow">he's got a long way to go</a>. As long as his support is down in the white noise, the fact that no one finds him objectionable doesn't help.<br /><br />IMHO, the only candidate who can afford to finish third or worse in Iowa is Romney, who can still get things rolling by winning NH. <br /><br />With the exception of 1992 when there effectively was no Iowa on the Dem side, nobody from 1976 on has won a major party nomination without winning at least one of these two states. That won't necessarily hold true in 2012, but those two states will still winnow the field down to just a few viable candidates, probably three or fewer.<br /><br />Pawlenty's challenge is to figure out how to be one of those three, which really means winning or being a strong runner-up in Iowa. He's not dead, but he's got a long way to go.low-tech cyclistnoreply@blogger.com