tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post9148047190754259329..comments2024-03-02T09:41:35.809-08:00Comments on Donkeylicious - A Blog by Neil Sinhababu and Nicholas Beaudrot: Why McCain Could Win And Romney Probably Can'tNeil Sinhababuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03249327186653397250noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-10041798448180350452011-04-21T21:23:06.877-07:002011-04-21T21:23:06.877-07:00Good points all. And I totally agree about DeMint...Good points all. And I totally agree about DeMint.Neil Sinhababuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03249327186653397250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-16430338943964262322011-04-20T07:16:41.022-07:002011-04-20T07:16:41.022-07:00There are two big differences between the assorted...There are two big differences between the assorted 2010 Senate GOP primaries and the race for the 2012 GOP nomination.<br /><br />One is that you don't just have one establishment candidate and one Teabagger candidate; you have several of each. And a lot will depend on how unified or divided the votes are on either side. <br /><br />Obviously, a lot could change yet, but at this point, Romney is in pretty good shape on the establishment side: neither Pawlenty or Daniels has picked up much support, and you'd have a hard time convincing me that either Barbour or Huntsman is going to go anywhere. Until that changes, Romney is the only establishment candidate on the leader board, and that's going to help him.<br /><br />Especially if things stay fragmented on the Teabag side, which brings me to the second difference. People are willing to put up with craziness in a Senate candidate that they'd be unwilling to in a Presidential candidate. Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Christine O'Donnell can win GOP Senate nominations, but not many people - even among Teabaggers, I'll bet - are going to hold their noses and vote for someone like that to be their Presidential candidate. <br /><br />This is because all you really want in a Senator is someone who'll vote your way and express the opinions you'd express, if you were in that position. Anyone can be a Senator. But a President has to actually run the country. Even radicals realize you can't just do the job by posturing.<br /><br />That's going to make it hard for the Teabaggers to find a candidate. Palin? Bachmann? Newt? Trump? Huckabee? Trump's abrupt rise isn't so much a symptom of the <i>overall</i> weakness of the GOP field, but of the weakness of the Teabagger-acceptable candidates. Even the wingnuts are holding their noses and hoping for someone better. <br /><br />Which is why Mitt can win.<br /><br />It's also (something up your alley here) opportunity knocking on Jim DeMint's door, if he cares to answer it. Problem there is, he seems to have gotten comfortable with his kingmaker role. It would take a lot to get him to shift gears, I suspect.low-tech cyclistnoreply@blogger.com