tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post4311033141000083086..comments2024-03-02T09:41:35.809-08:00Comments on Donkeylicious - A Blog by Neil Sinhababu and Nicholas Beaudrot: You Can Hurt A Campaign With Gaffes If You're Sarah PalinNeil Sinhababuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03249327186653397250noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-13919256983475052812011-04-16T11:35:02.163-07:002011-04-16T11:35:02.163-07:00I think a lot of the close fit of the data to the ...I think a lot of the close fit of the data to the model has to do with a survivorship bias - that candidates who are so gaffe prone or whose damage control is so poor don't survive primaries. This obviously matters if a) a primary electorate doesn't punish a candidate for being gaffe prone or b) a gaffe prone candidate manages to survive a primary where support is divided among many candidates.<br /><br />Both of those scenarios are, in my opinion, more likely with the GOP field in 2012 than in past elections both because of the lack of a clear front-runner and because of the radicalization of the primary electorate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3401584991689197404.post-54392171985170524022011-03-04T08:25:58.488-08:002011-03-04T08:25:58.488-08:00Also too while general elections are largely deter...Also too while general elections are largely determined by the economy, gaffes can very well kill a candidate in the primaries. Of course that assumes that the primary electorate perceives what happens as a gaffe. I tend to think what Huckabee said this week probably actually helped his chances to win the primary since it's already a matter of faith among the hardcore conservatives who will vote in Iowa, etc. that Obama is an alien Muslim socialist.Ron E.noreply@blogger.com