It Had To Be Done

I refuse to believe that Paul Krugman coined the phrase "Invisible Bond Vigilantes" without expecting something like this to show up on the Internets:

Copyright notice: republish this image to your heart's content. It's simply too awesome not to share.

SCOTUS hearings

The only way I'm going to be able to tolerate these is if there's some sort of drinking game involved. In fact, even then I may have to read the transcripts and drink as I see the words rather than hear them. Presumably Kagan will manage to say next to nothing and a week or so we can all move on with our lives.

Global Leaders Remain in the Grips of Deficitmania

They seem to have unlearned the lessons of the 1930s:

TORONTO — Despite President Obama’s pitch at the summit meeting for developed nations here for continued stimulus measures to prevent another global economic downturn, the United States will go along with other leaders who are more concerned about rising debt and join in a commitment to cut their governments’ deficits in half by 2013, administration officials said on Saturday.

That goal is the proposal of Stephen Harper, the prime minister of Canada and the host of the two-day Group of 20 summit of developed nations.

Good times.

The "New Normal" Isn't Normal At All

The elite conversation about the recession has featured a great deal of hemming and hawing about what can and can't be done about the unemployment situation. In particular, there has been a tremendous rush to describe the unemployment as "structural", to point out that the bubble in housing led to a construction boom that ought not to be repeated, and to in general dissuade policymakers from doing too many things that might lead to inflation, even though inflation indicators suggest that in the short and medium term there's no real threat of inflation. But via Brad DeLong, we see that the American employment situation is unique among G7 countries.

This may help partially explain why some of the major European powers seem to be even more in the grips of deficit mania than the America. Germany, the most deficit-wary country, is almost all the way back to it's pre-recession employment figure. The rest of the countries are hovering between a 1% and 2% drop in employment. But across the pond, we're sitting on almost a 6% decline and no one seems to care very much. To cite DeLong again, "If we had 10% inflation and 1.2% unemployment, Ben Bernanke's Hair Would Be on Fire". But we have 10% unemployment and 1.2% inflation, so it's treated as a mild nuisance, the way you might treat a problem of having too many feral cats in your neighborhood, rather than mountain lions mauling your children.

The proper response to this sort of chart ought to be "Damn the inflation, full speed ahead!" But somehow the public conversation isn't obsessed with solving this drastic an unique unemployment problem.

A Love Letter to European Soccer

Dear Europe,

We need to talk. The world has changed around you and I'm not sure you've noticed.

You see, it's just not your World Cup anymore. While the top seeded teams faired very well whether they hailed from Europe or South America, the unseeded teams from the Continent just weren't anything special. Here's the average number of points scored per game

1. 2.25 -- CONMEBOL (South America) -- 2.25
2. 1.16 -- AFC (Asia) 
3. 1.13 -- UEFA
4. 1.11 -- CONCACAF (North America, Central America, & Carribean)
5. 1.00 -- OFC (Oceania, aka New Zealand)
6. 0.67 -- CAF (Africa)

In addition, other than South Africa, the only seeded team to fail to make it out of group play, Italy, hails from Europe. And the points-per-game rating puts Europe in the best possible light (or, one might say, least worst possible light). Of the ten unseeded teams to advance, three are from South America, two each are from Europe, CONCACAF, and Asia, and one from Africa. But Europe sent eight unseeded teams to the World Cup, while the other conferences sent far fewer.

Going strictly by group play results, FIFA ought reduce the number of teams coming from Europe and Africa and plus up the number from South America an Asia. Had this happened this year, that would have replaced Algeria and Portugal with Bahrain and Ecuador. Now, Portugal did make it to the knockout round, but they haven't managed to score a goal against anyone other than North Korea. Color me unimpressed.