Friday Obama Caption Contest & Kitsch Cover

Original Caption: "President Barack Obama makes an election night phone call to Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) from his Treaty Room office in the White House residence a couple of minutes after midnight, Nov. 3, 2010."

Today's Kitsch Cover is William Shatner performing Cee-lo's masterpiece, "Fuck You":

Bennet Beats Buck

I mentioned this in dissing on the Tea Party earlier, but the Colorado Senate race was one of the most exciting ones for me, because I like Michael Bennet and despise Ken Buck. Bennet, the Democrat, won by a 47.5-47 margin. A Green Party candidate got 3% and I remember thinking on election night, please don't let us get Nadered on this one!

I'd encourage any Democrats looking for something to feel good about to take a look at the wikipedia pages on Bennet and Buck's past careers and views on issues. It's really good that the capable smart public servant beat the angry misogynist.

Failing Upwards

As punishment for not doing enough blogging here, I'm now ... guest blogging for the newly engaged Ezra Klein at the Washington Post. Between this and some recent life changes (most notably, the event that you see to your right is over, meaning I don't spend any daytime hours talking to wedding vendors, or nighttime hours looking at budget spreadsheets), I should have more time for blogging in the near future.

Note: there should be some limit on the number of times a blogger is allowed to write "I'm sorry for not writing more. But things should be getting better soon." Five? Ten? Twenty-five? Anyway, when you hit that number, you either have to quit or find a way to make blogging your full-time job.

Barry Goldwater's Revenge

The long, slow, transformation of the (White) Deep South into a Republican one-party state may now be complete. In 1964, Barry Goldwater bested Lyndon Johnson in exactly six states—his home state of Arizona, and five Southern states  where African-Americans make up more that 25% of the population: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Congressional Democrats were able to survive in these regions of the country through a combination of overwhelming support among newly enfranchised African-Americans, piling up "centrist" voting records, watching out for local issues, and so forth.

The results of the 2010, suggest the effectiveness of these tactics may be coming to an end. Here is the complete list of Democrats still standing, along with the Cook PVI for each district, and the percentage of the district's population that's African-American:

• Jim Clyburn, SC-06 (D +12, 53%)
• Hank Johnson, GA-04 (D +24, 51%)
• John Lewis, GA-05 (D +26, 50%)
• John Barrow, GA-12 (D +1, 38%)
• David Scott, GA-13 (D +15, 49%)
• Terri Sewell, AL-07 (D +18, 61%)
• Bennie Thompson, MS-02 (D +12, 63%)
• Cedric Richmond, LA-02 (D +25, 52%)

Of the eight remaining Democrats, seven are African-American. All eight districts have very high concentrations of African-American voters. This is the mirror image of the destruction of the Northeastern Republican Party. And we shouldn't blind ourselves to why this is happening. It's impolitic to discuss ... let's call it "race-conscious voting" ... in American politics. But it exists, and anyone who claims it doesn't is either a liar, a fool, or running for public office.

Tonight, Northeastern Republicans made a modest comeback, winning back two seats in New Hampshire, as well as several additional seats in New York and Eastern Pennsylvania. Whether or not Democrats can put together a similar revival in the Deep South, or in similar regions in the Appalachians and Ozarks where Obama's poor performance dates back to the 2008 primaries (and where House Dems suffered big losses tonight), is unclear.

Deep Thought

When I tried to go to bed a few hours ago, I thought Democrats were on pace to lose almost 70 seats. At the moment, on net they've lost 59 seats, though a few more may turn for the worse. In essence, tonight's election wipes out all of the gains from 2006 and 2008, and then tacks on a handful of additional losses for good measure. The Republicans majority of between 238 and 252 seats will most likely be larger in size than the Democrats majority of 2006-2008, but smaller than the current Democratic majority.

A quick scan of the GOP takeovers shows a number of districts that will be competitive in an election closer to the near 50-50 elections of 2000 and 2004. Several races in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Washington state will be within easy reach and Colorado. Seats in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and otherwise. The prospect of re-taking the House in 2012 is doable.

Further analysis from yours truly is going to have to wait until later.