The Weird Place We're In

Jon Cohn is optimistic about health care reform. Kevin Drum is pessimistic. But they don't seem to disagree on the nature of the situation very much. And I understand -- it's hard to figure out what's going on here.

It's really weird. We're on the two-yard-line, as Cohn says. (Robert Gibbs says it's the five-yard-line.) The procedural obstacles ahead of us are small compared to what we've surmounted so far. But our people in the House, Senate, and White House are some mix of demoralized and disorganized. So things could just sit here and die, even after all the actors have put forward a huge effort and paid massive costs. I really don't know if there's any parallel to our situation in the history of legislation.

I'm really not sure what's going on here, but I'm enough of a believer in human non-insanity to think that we're going to get a bill. I don't know how it happens. I wish House Democrats would realize, as Jonathan Bernstein has been saying, that they're in position to get popular support for a reconciliation bill that eliminates the Cornhusker Kickback and whatever else, and cram it down the Senate's throat. (This could be awesome -- if your reconciliation bill eliminates the Cornhusker Kickback and the Republicans filibuster with Ben Nelson on their side, they look positively terrible.) I wish progressive Senators would help them work out a package that stood a good shot of getting through the Senate -- it would make it much easier for the House to get its head together. And above all, I wish Obama would show up and exercise some leadership here. At this point, if the health care bill fails, it's on him as much as anybody else.

Prognosis

Ezra is nervous with Rahm Emanuel slowing down health care reform, and I am too. The fact that our ability to use reconciliation expires relatively soon, with the passage of the next budget, is something I wasn't aware of before. Also the issue about how key personnel will be out campaigning later in the year. (On the upside, I'm somewhat encouraged by the fact that Obama spent a fair bit of time talking health care with GOP congressmen. Not because it'll win them over or anything, but because it suggests that he's not running away from it.)

I'm quite attracted to Jonathan Bernstein's view of the whole situation: the House should just step up and pass the Senate bill as well as a reconciliation vehicle, before the Senate acts or gives them any guarantees. Since the reconciliation vehicle is full of goodies, there will be considerable appeal to getting it through the Senate as well. Bernstein argues convincingly that the situation with respect to the reconciliation bill is quite different from climate change legislation and a bunch of other tough votes Democrats have had to make, as the reconciliation vehicle will be sweet rather than bitter. I really hope they can work out their Senate abuse trauma issues in time to see reason and do this, though, and I can't be very optimistic on that front.

Shorter Obama @ House GOP Conference

Bobblespeak could have a field day with this stuff, but pretty much every question followed the same form. So as I did with House, M.D., let me try and reproduce the archetypal exchange between Barack Obama and House Republicans.

GOP Representative #1: We have ideas such as X, Y, and Z on issue 1. They will work! But it doesn't look like you've them, maybe it because Nancy Pelosi is a meanie and doesn't show them to you.

Obama: Well, I've seen them, and we incorporated X into bills we passed. But you still voted against those bills.

GOP Representative #2: With respect to issue #1, what about Y, Z, and W? They will work!

Obama: We looked at Y and Z, but you can't just say they'll work. I have to be able to go to outside to an independent expert who can tell me that they'll work. The debate has to be grounded in reality at some level. As for W, we just have a fundamental disagreement, and so far a bill that's not 100% of what the House GOP wants seems to be getting all no votes.

GOP Representative #3: What about Y and Z? They will work!

Obama: ...

Friday Obama Caption Contest & Kitsch Drum FC

Original Caption: "President Barack Obama shakes hands with Vice President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi at the conclusion of his State of the Union address, Jan. 27, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)"

 
In honor of the President's admonition to House & Senate Democrats not to run for the hills, here's blindz0r with an FC of the Iron Maiden's "Run To The Hills"—the cover version from the original Rock Band. Apologies for the Cookie Monster metal at the beginning.

The Era of Bipartisan PAYGO Is Over

The Senate amendment to enact statutory pay-as-you-go passed 60-40. By agreement among members of the World's Laziest Deliberative Body, this amendment required 60 votes to pass. Zero Republicans voted for it. This meas deficit peacocks like Judd Gregg, John McCain, George Voinovich, and moderates such as Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe couldn't bring themselves to support it. Had Scott Brown been sworn in, unless he had a sudden bout of conscience, the amendment would not have passed.

The commitment to PAYGO was probably the singular most important instrument in driving down the deficit during the 1990s. It forces Congress to make actual decisions about budgeting, not fantasy Republican decisions as we saw during the Bush years. But since it might be a back-door way of making it slightly more likely that taxes might be increased a smidge, or since it might be some sort of legislative victory for Democrats, every single Republican remained opposed to it.

I hope that the Peterson Foundation and other balanced-budget types keep this in mind the next time they think there's a bipartisan commitment to get the deficit under control.