Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Mapping the Obama-Romney Presidential Race

With the recent Florida poll showing Romney up by 6 in the Sunshine state, it's worth taking a look at the broad view of the the Presidential contest: 


This is roughly what the campaign looks like, as of late May. Barack Obama seems to have locked down the Pacific Coast and all of the Northeast, including New Hampshire EDIT: and Pennsylvania, two states that Republicans would desparately like to put into play in order to expand the map. However, Obama's strength in the Upper Midwest has dissipated. Minnesota is still safe, and Michigan seems to have a strong Democratic lean. But Wisconsin and Iowa, which were more or less uncompetitive in 2008, now appear to be swing states. On the flip side, Obama appears to by ahead by a nose in Virginia.

Obviously, given this map, you would rather be Barack Obama than Mitt Romney. Obama is slightly ahead in Wisconsin and Virginia; victories in those states alone would secure the nomination. But if the economy continues to stutter and the conservative megaphone succeeds in discrediting the President, Obama may find himself in a position where it's difficult to shift the electoral map in any direction at all.
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