Big Hawaii Primary Weekend

Big events are coming up the Hawaii Democratic primary on August 11, with a Senate race and maybe a House race each pitting a liberal Democrat against a conservative Democrat.

On the Senate side we have Mazie Hirono versus Ed Case.  It's a pretty serious liberal vs. conservative  showdown, with solidly liberal Hirono against longtime Iraq War and estate tax cut supporter Case.  The polling looks weird.  Everything either shows Ed Case with a tiny lead or Mazie Hirono with a gigantic lead.  I guess that's good news for Hirono, but I'm going to be a bit nervous about this one until I see the results.  I've given $1000 to Hirono and helped her campaign in minor internet ways.  If you're curious to learn more about why Hirono is a much better candidate than Case, here you go!

On the House side, there's Tulsi Gabbard versus Mufi Hanneman.  Gabbard is a 30-year-old military veteran recently returned from Afghanistan.  Her views on abortion and gay rights are solidly left-wing, though it's unclear how long she's held these positions.  Hanneman has consistently been a mealy-mouthed Democrat on abortion and supports the Defense of Marriage Act.  Gabbard has suddenly jumped to a 20 point lead in recent polls after trailing for a while.  This is a bit of a tougher race to judge, because Gabbard is kind of an unknown, but I think she's the one to root for here.

I'm especially interested in the Senate race, because a victory here will send a clear message that supporting bad wars and tax cuts for the rich isn't welcome in the Democratic Party.  Primaries are how you reorient your entire party towards the views you care about.  

I Gave Mazie Hirono $1000 To Stop Ed Case

As far as I can tell, this year's most important Democratic Senate primary is in Hawaii, where solid left-wing Democrat Mazie Hirono is facing off against right-wing Ed Case. I really don't want to see Ed Case going to the Senate and supporting Republican wars and tax cuts like he did in the House, or getting in the way of Democratic initiatives like Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman. This is the time when I can prevent that from happening. So I've donated $1000 to Mazie Hirono.

Case was in Congress from 2002-2007. While he got

his seat too late to vote in favor of the Iraq War, he announced his support for the war during the campaign and was opposing withdrawal from Iraq as late as August 2006. He's basically the Hawaiian Joe Lieberman -- in fact, he endorsed Lieberman's presidential campaign back in 2004 as well as Lieberman's run for Senate as an independent against Democrat Ned Lamont in 2006. He supported Patriot Act reauthorization and supported keeping Guantanamo open after visiting it.

Lots of Democrats have cast various kinds of bad votes, but what really stands out about Case is his support for cutting taxes for rich people. In 2006, he was one of only 34 Democrats (who sided with 196 Republicans) to support reducing the estate tax. He also was one of 15 Democrats (who sided with 229 Republicans) to support cutting capital gains taxes and dividend taxes. And then there's this crazy vote, which I'll let Down With Tyranny explain with characteristic force:

Back in 2005 an amendment by far right sociopath Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) targeted NPR, PBS, the National Endowment for the Arts, and Title X family planning all in one shot. Only one Democrat crossed the aisle to vote for the most extreme piece of legislation of that session... Ed Case.

Apparently it was legislation to protect lots of tax cuts by cutting spending on programs including those above. And Ed Case was, indeed, the only Democrat to vote for it.

Mazie Hirono, meanwhile, is the kind of Democrat you'd hope for from Hawaii. She has perfect scores from NARAL, Planned Parenthood, the Human Rights Campaign, the Humane Society, and 90% or over on every legislative rating I can see from the ACLU and major environmental organizations. She's got the AFL-CIO's endorsement against Case and has a bunch of favorable ratings from unions. And she has perfect 0% ratings every year she's been in Congress from the Club for Growth, which gives you higher numbers if you support massive tax cuts for rich people. (Meanwhile, Club for Growth contributor and billionare investor Charles Schwab picked out Ed Case as one of the few Democrats he'd contribute to.) She'd also be the first Buddhist in the Senate, which would be pretty neat.

In primaries it's important to think about who could win the general election, and it seems that Hirono has an advantage there. She leads likely Republican opponent Linda Lingle by 6 points in the most recent independent poll, which has Case losing by 2. I was surprised by how well Lingle did in the poll, and I expect Democrats to outperform these numbers in 2012 with a native son running for president and drawing out Democratic voters. But in any event, this doesn't appear to be a case where you lose votes in the middle by supporting a more left-wing candidate.

There are lots of places in the country where I'd be willing to tolerate a conservative Democratic Senator. I could easily accept someone with Case's voting record from Idaho or Alabama or somewhere like that. But having Hawaii produce a conservative Democrat who undermines Democratic initiatives and supports Republican wars and tax cuts is not an acceptable result. Primaries are when you get to prevent that from happening, and I'm doing what I can. If you're interested in helping out too, you're definitely welcome to use my ActBlue page.

Hawaii Is Important, Hirono Is In, Hanabusa Should Help Her

Two weeks ago, Rep. Mazie Hirono entered the Hawaii Democratic Senate primary. She provides a solid progressive alternative to Ed Case, who voted for the bankruptcy bill and was supporting the Iraq War even in 2006. While there are quite a few Democratic Senate primaries where I'm not sure whom to support (New Mexico, for example), the choice here is clear. Electability shouldn't be a worry in blue Hawaii, especially with a native son at the top of the ticket at 2012.

It's an important primary, because once a Democrat gets into the Senate from Hawaii, they're likely to stay there for a good long time. They're unlikely to get beaten by Republicans in a strong Democratic state. There's the possibility of a primary challenge if they do something really annoying, but who knows if that will work out. So the consequences of this small-state Senate primary could stick with us for decades, in whether we have an excellent Senator or an infuriating one.

It's important that other progressive candidates stay out of the race and not give Case the victory by splitting the progressive vote. If you're Colleen Hanabusa, Hawaii's other Democratic representative (and a fine progressive) your best chance of becoming a Senator is to endorse Hirono and not run this time. If you jump into the race, take votes from Hirono, and throw the election to Case, Hirono is probably going to be around to run against you for the open seat when Daniel Inouye retires. But if you endorse her and she wins, she'll be out of your way. And assuming that the favor-trading economy works properly, she'll help you in the election to replace Inouye. Maybe you'll have to deal with Case or some similar moderate, but it's a Democratic primary in a liberal state and you can take him in a one-on-one fight.

Hirono Defeats Iraq War Supporter Case 58-41 For Senate Nomination

It's a good weekend for people who want the Democratic Party to oppose tax cuts for the rich and foolish wars, as Mazie Hirono has defeated Ed Case in the primary for the Democratic nomination in Hawaii 58-41.  That's at the high end of expectations -- the polling weirdly alternated between statistical ties and polls showing Mazie with a lead close to this outcome.  Hirono seems to have a good lead against ex-Governor and Republican nominee Linda Lingle in the general election.  

I'm happy to have helped make this a big win, with a $1000 contribution to Hirono and some minor internet volunteer work.  When he was in Congress, Ed Case supported the Iraq War all the way through 2006, voted to cut taxes on inheritances and investment income, and was the only Democrat to vote for Jeb Hensarling's amendment eliminating funding for PBS, NPR, and Title IX family planning in 2005.  I hope the large margin will make clear that people with that kind of record don't get to be Democratic nominees for Senate seats.  The first person who needs to hear that message is Ed Case himself, who ought to give up hopes of a political career with this third consecutive Democratic primary defeat.  

I'd also like Democrats far and wide who might have a Senate primary in their futures to keep this result in mind.  The way that conservative Republicans, who today call themselves the Tea Party, took control of their party was by winning elections like this.  Not only did they keep some moderates out of office, but they scared others into voting like conservatives.  The left wing of the Democratic Party hasn't accumulated that awesome a record of victory -- if they did, it'd have a similar effect on moderate Democratic officeholders.  One can hope that this is the beginning of similarly awesome things.

In other good Hawaii news, Tulsi Gabbard defeated Mufi Hanneman 55-34 for the Democratic nomination to the open Congressional seat left by Hirono.  (It's Hawaii; people have unusual first names.)  There was some concern that Hanneman might be the most conservative Congresscritter in a solidly Democratic seat.  Tulsi's views on a lot of issues are unclear, but she took stronger positions in favor of gay marriage and abortion rights this election than Hanneman did.  

An interesting result of this weekend's primary is that it gives everyone in Hawaii's 2nd district a chance to vote for a Buddhist for the Senate and a Hindu for the House.  This is the seat to which Patsy Mink was re-elected in November 2002 after having died that September.  I imagine that voters in the district will have no problem with putting believers in reincarnation in both federal legislative seats.  

Hirono For Hawaii, Or At Least Not Ed Case

Hawaii may have a competitive Democratic primary for Senate in 2012, with Ed Case and some progressive Democrat like Congresswoman Mazie Hirono facing off to replace the retiring Daniel Akaka. (Case has declared his candidacy, Hirono hasn't yet.) As DavidNYC from the Project points out, Case is a bad Democrat:

Case is truly a Dem in the DLC mold. Most notoriously, when he was running for Congress in 2002, he said he would have voted for the Iraq war resolution - and as late as 2006, he voted (and spoke) in favor of an open-ended military commitment in that country. He's also been a regular supporter of anti-progressive legislation like the bankruptcy bill and the PATRIOT Act.

Meanwhile, you can look at Hirono's issue positions here. Basically everything is as good as you'd expect from a Hawaii Democrat. She's always been an opponent of the Iraq War (though she got elected to Congress too late to vote on it).

Winning the general election shouldn't be too difficult, especially with native son Barack Obama at the top of the ticket in liberal Hawaii. And Hirono has lately been winning her congressional district by margins of over 40%, so she should win a general election.

House Of Lords Watch

Olympia Snowe's decision not to run for re-election may be a bigger story than anything remaining in the GOP presidential primary (well, assuming that Romney wins). Democrats are pretty well-positioned, having two Congresscritters contending for the nomination -- Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, as well as former Governor John Baldacci. I don't know anything beyond what I've seen on their Wikipedia pages, but Pingree seems to be more progressive than Michaud. Susan Collins is up for re-election in 2014, and if Snowe's decision is any kind of suggestion that she'll do the same thing, it's something for Democrats to celebrate.

Bob Kerrey's decision to run for his old Nebraska Senate seat is also good news, but I'd still expect the Republicans to carry that one. I'm pleased to see Mazie Hirono up big over Ed Case in a recent poll, though it's a Hirono campaign poll and earlier polling hasn't been so strong. I'm less happy to see Tommy Thompson leading Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin -- Baldwin is one of the most left-wing people in Congress and I'd love to see her win.

Is Patty Murray To Thank For The New Lady Senators?

Kate Sheppard's post on the new female legislators (via Bernstein) reminds us of how women perform as well as men in elections, but are less likely to run. This year, Democrats had a large number of excellent female candidates, particularly in the Senate -- Tammy Baldwin, Elizabeth Warren, Mazie Hirono, and Heidi Heitkamp. It's not like we did badly on the male side either, with Joe Donnelly, Angus King, Chris Murphy, Tim Kaine, and Martin Heinrich. But especially given lower female representation at the levels preceding the Senate on the career ladder, getting all the good female candidates we did is a great achievement.

Simply as a candidate, Heitkamp stands out above everyone else. When the North Dakota seat opened up, everybody thought it'd be an easy Republican pickup. And as far as I know, Rick Berg didn't self-destruct in any Akin- or Mourdock-like way. According to many nonpartisan reports, Heidi Heitkamp was just such a nice person that North Dakota voters elected her while going for Romney by a 59-39 margin. There's probably nobody else in North Dakota who could've won that race.

Patty Murray of Washington State was the chair of the DSCC this cycle, and perhaps she's the one to thank. If the big problem in getting women into office is getting them to run in the first place, maybe putting a woman in position to do candidate recruitment is the way to go. Definitely if Murray can find us some more Heidi Heitkamps, I'd love to see her in charge of the DSCC for the 2014 cycle.

The Senate Is More Exciting

I'm occasionally clicking over to 538, looking at the more or less static presidential race numbers, and wishing that I could get more information about Senate races.  There's so much interesting stuff going on in the Senate this cycle.  There's the Hawaii Democratic primary pitting solid party-liner Mazie Hirono against LieberDem Ed Case, the Wisconsin race with Tammy Baldwin against whoever emerges from an exciting GOP primary, the much-beloved Elizabeth Warren in MA, a serious chance for Democrats to hang on in North Dakota, George Allen trying to rise again in Virginia, and a whole bunch of other races going on.  But Nate's got nothing to tell me on that.  The other sites I look at (RCP and TPM) don't really have much in the way of groundbreaking Senate analytics, though they're okay for just seeing what recent polls have said.