Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Thanks, Jay Inslee

All this stuff about how it's politically smarter to pass health care reform than to let it die and carry its rotting carcass into November has been said incessantly by lefty blogger types. It's good to see that an actual Congressman is going out and convincing other Congresspeople of it. He has a cute 'finish the kitchen' metaphor, but this is really what's got to weigh big:

"I introduced myself as a fella who was defeated in 1994, the last time we didn't pass meaningful health-care reform," Inslee recalls saying. "I said it was a painful event, and I didn't want them to go through that pain." In politics, he told his colleagues, assuming the "fetal position" can be the most dangerous thing to do.

On the 'Obama to do his bipartisan summit thing' news, I bought the 'health care reform passes' contract on Intrade at a little under 34. The June 30 deadline on it concerns me a bit, because I don't know exactly how the calendar works here. Certainly I wouldn't have expected things to drag on as long as they have already. I don't have a specific guess at what our chances of victory are here, but I'm pretty sure they're above 50%. Barack is committed and moving, we only need 50 in the Senate, we've climbed much bigger mountains already, the reconciliation bill will be sweet, the post-MA panic is fading, and we've got Nancy. I think we're going to win this, and I'll take my winnings and crank out some Pelosi t-shirts.


corvus said...

Sounds like a good bet to me.

I don't understand why some people think the summit is a bad idea. I mean, there are basically two options. Either the GOP doesn't show up, in which case it becomes an opportunity for the dems to have a good laugh at their uselessness, then feel emboldened to pass healthcare, or they do show up, and, when they bring up whatever proposals they have, Obama either points out they are already in the bill, or defers to some expert like Doug Elmendorf to point out how useless they are. Then Obama gets to say, well, we talked everything out, in public, with cameras, and I still think passing the bill we have is the way to go. Then the democrats go do that.

Really, this is all about bringing the Dems back into the fold by broadcasting what's actually in the bill, which almost all polls well, even if the bill itself doesn't (a result of GOP lies and media incompetence), thus softening the bills landing and preping them for it's defense after passage, and by exposing the GOPs total uselessness. I think at this point it is an accepted fact that Obama, left in a room with any number of GOP Congressmen or Senators, basically slaughters. And there is really no way for the GOP to manuever out of this summit without exposing themselves to "legitimate" media scrutiny as back faith operators. They know this, Obama knows this. but what can they do about this.

Obama is finally figuring out how to use his bully pulpit.

Neil Sinhababu said...

As usual, I think that's entirely right.

Ron E. said...

Doesn't the reconciliation option (the only realistic option) expire sometime this spring? If that's the case, then reform will either pass or fail well before June 30.