Usually, it's hard for Democrats to win statewide races in Alaska. Winning a race in a Republican year like 2010 will be extra hard. But things are going really well for Democratic nominee Scott McAdams -- not only did Tea Party opponent Joe Miller beat potential guaranteed winner Lisa Murkowski, but Murkowski is going to be splitting the GOP vote with a write-in-campaign! And the war of words between Miller and Murkowski is bitter.
Between an opponent who opposes Medicare, Social Security, and unemployment benefits, and an angry incumbent doing a write-in campaign, the amount of awesome required from McAdams to win this election just went down a lot. While 3-way polls have him coming in last against Murkowski and Miller, those assume that Murkowski's name is on the ballot for the Libertarians. I have to imagine that being a write-in candidate will free up some voters. And if this all ends in failure, with Murkowski giving up the write-in bid, things could still go well if she's bitter enough to encourage her supporters to vote against Miller.
As for those of us who see internal civil war as a stepping-stone on the path to a saner GOP... well, this is what we have to hope for. If Murkowski manages to stop Miller from winning, the effects on intra-GOP rifts can only be positive ones.