Monday, January 18, 2010

Tuesday MA-SEN Election Thread

It just turned midnight on the East Coast.

If you live, really, anywhere in New England, or even some parts of Upstate New York, go make some incremental improvement in Martha Coakley's situation. For further analysis of what's going on, just read Chris Bowers: Part I, Part II. It's really not that complicated, people; Obama was elected during an economic collapse with a promise to enact some policies; those policies were, more or less, enacted; but the macroeconomic situation isn't very good for most people.

My usual method in the endgame is to simply count the number of polls where each candidate is winning. Coakley hasn't led in a single poll since 1/14. Yes, some of those polls are dubious; but not all of them. The tricky thing is that prior to 1/14, Coakley led in 6 of 9 polls, sometimes by large margins. I'm sure there have been other elections that feature such substantial late poll movement, but I can't recall them off the top of my head, so I have no sense of what election to use as a comparison. I'll just say Brown by 4, but really anyone who claims to have a clue what's going to happen is selling something.

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