Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Fearless Forecasting

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I think we only agree on the AL picks this year; the Yanks are serious favorites over Minnesota, and while the Angels are better this year, the emergence of Jon Lester makes the Sawx a tough draw in the postseason.

In the NL, things are different. Jim Tracy is one of the soundest Moneyball managers, but he's adapted to the higher rate of base-stealing of today's game. Since Tracy took over as manager, only the Yankees have a better run differential. Cole Hamels hasn't been terribly effictive this year, while the Rox have started letting Jorge de la Rosa pitch a bit deeper into games, giving them a two to go with Ubaldo Jimenez at 1. So I'll take Rockies in 4 in that series.

As for the Dodgers-Cardinals match-up, it looks like it's going to come down to starting pitching. Both teams have lineups that can mash, but the Dodgers' staff is limping into the post-season, with Billingsley gimpy and Kershaw likely to have his innings limited. That said, Torre has a history of effective in-game management during the post-season, so I'll take the team that's the underdogs on paper. Dodgers in 5.
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