Friday, September 7, 2012
2012 Presidential Election Map: September Edition
Fivethirtyeight's state-by-state forecasts show Obama as the favorite in four of the five inner swing states (Silver's model also suggests Colorado is as competitive as Ohio and Iowa, even though Obama's lead in that state has been more persistent). In fact, if you naively multiply Romney's win probabilities in these states, he has a vanishingly small 0.7% chance of winning the Electoral College. Now, obviously, win probabilities in each state are not purely independent. If Mitt Romney wins Wisconsin, that's a strong signal that he will also win Iowa. But it does demonstrate that that Obama is firmly in the drivers seat as we head into the final eight weeks of the election.