Monday, September 17, 2012

The Incredible Shrinking Campaign

The Presidential Campaign is now only happening in four states. The Romney campaign isn't spending any time in North Carolina, though they are certainly spending money on ads there. Instead, almost all of the Republican nominee's campaign events (as opposed to fundraisers) are focused on Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Barack Obama has even further narrowed his appearances to those four states.

The polls in New Hampshire have shown Obama with a modest but consistent lead, so it's unlikely that Romney has a path to victory through the Granite state. Instead, he will have to pull of a clean sweep of the other four true swing states. Naively multiplying Romney's 538 win probabilities in those states gives him a 5% chance of victory, though that probably understates his chances a bit.
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