Tuesday, March 31, 2009


At the time of this writing, Scott Murphy (D) is down by 52-48 to Jim Tedisco (R), an absolute margin of 720 votes. Comparing the numbers to 2006, when Kirsten Gillibrand won 53-47, Murphy appears to be far enough behind that he's unlikel to make up the margin, considering how heavily he's losing in vote-rich Saratoga county.

There's going to be a temptation to read an awful lot into victory or defeat here, but in reality there is very little story beyond "Both Teams Played Hard". A district with a slight Republican lean went for a Democrat by a small margin in a year when Democrats won several red-leaning districts. In a special election three years late, Republicans may take it back by a similarly small margin. Because politics produces discrete winners and losers, and cable news attempts to read everything as a referendum on everything, it's often times hard to see just how small the changes are sometimes.

Update: Sixty-five votes? All I can say is that the past six months have been great economic stimulus if you're an election lawyer.


Neil Sinhababu said...

Wow, 1% is 180 votes? Special elections is small.

Anonymous said...

Final -- Murphy by < 30.

Automatic recount.

Glenn Fayard said...

Nothing final - they're waiting for absentee ballots. God only knows, hopefully less litigation than usual *God strikes me dead*