Friday, March 6, 2009

Party Like It's 1981.


This rather nifty chart comparing unemployment in the current recession to previous recessions isn't exactly a pleasant read. We're getting close to the point where, in all previous post-war recessions, employment started to stabilize; only the 1981 recession saw job losses continue after 14 months. But the other difference is that the current recession didn't start getting really bad until the 8th or 9th month, while other recessions saw rapidly rising unemployment start somewhere between month two and month six. So based on historical data, then, we have between three and nine months of terrible BLS reports. Or something like that. Maybe.

(I'd hat tip, but the post is no longer in my google reader. Sorry, sorry.)

3 comments:

spavis said...

when i lose posts in greader the easiest thing is to do a search for keywords. In this example, "unemployment chart".

To prevent losing interesting posts i'll either star them (keyboard shortcut: "s") or mark them as unread (m). or both. Or you can show all items an j-walk your way through until you find the chart (by pressing j-j-j you can jump through your posts quickly and assuming the chart was at the top of the post, find it quickly).

at any rate i'm not sure where you found it, but i found it here: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm

via here: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/03/worse_than_1981.cfm

spavis said...

also here: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/more-on-job-losses-comparing-recessions.html

nimh said...

Your graph seems to be gone now. JPG "not found" if I click on where the graph should be.