Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Deep Thought

When I tried to go to bed a few hours ago, I thought Democrats were on pace to lose almost 70 seats. At the moment, on net they've lost 59 seats, though a few more may turn for the worse. In essence, tonight's election wipes out all of the gains from 2006 and 2008, and then tacks on a handful of additional losses for good measure. The Republicans majority of between 238 and 252 seats will most likely be larger in size than the Democrats majority of 2006-2008, but smaller than the current Democratic majority.

A quick scan of the GOP takeovers shows a number of districts that will be competitive in an election closer to the near 50-50 elections of 2000 and 2004. Several races in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Washington state will be within easy reach and Colorado. Seats in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and otherwise. The prospect of re-taking the House in 2012 is doable.

Further analysis from yours truly is going to have to wait until later.

1 comment:

Ron E. said...

But if you look at which Senators are up for re-election in 2012, there are a number of freshmen from red and purple states who could be very vulnerable if the economy stays weak. You could have the odd situation where Obama wins re-election (to be sure he's not a lock if the economy stays weak) and Democrats re-take the House but lose the Senate.