Friday, February 11, 2011

So, Uh, Why'd It Work This Time?

Can anyone come up with a working model for why protests in Egypt succeeded in forcing the resignation of Mubarak, when those in Iran failed?

Here are what I see as potentially salient issues:
  • Mubarak is probably (??) less popular than Ahmadenijad
  • Egypt is poorer and more unequal than Iran
  • Immediacy of food crisis in Egypt
  • Weaker state control over media
  • Western nations have more leverage in Egypt
  • Regime has zero religious legitimacy
  • As Billy Beane would say, f***ing luck.
But which factors matter the most? And are there other factors that I'm missing?
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