Thursday, June 28, 2012

Mapping the Obama-Romney Presidential Race: June 2012 Edition

We're another month along in the Presidential Race since the last update, so it's probably about time to take stock of the current situation.

The basic shape of the map is that Barack Obama has so far been unable to replicate his 2008 strength in the Upper Midwest. Obama was +7 against McCain nationally, but +9 in Iowa, +14 in Wisconsin, and +17 in Michigan. Today, with nationwide polls in close to a dead heat, Obama is behind in Iowa, only slightly ahead in Wisconsin, and either slightly ahead or tied in Michigan. This weakness hilights the need to compete heavily in the Southwest—locking up Nevada, pushing Colorado into the "lean" camp, possibly forcing Arizona to become a competitive state—in order to expand the map.

The most recent Horse's Ass poll analysis continues to project Obama as a runaway favorite in the electoral college. Even if you exclude the dubious South Carolina results (the polling there is incredibly stale), the balance of polling continues to favor Obama, due to small but persistent leads in Virgina, Nevada, and Florida.
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