My sense of the presidential race is that the slowly rising economy and the basic shape of partisan allegiance combine to give Obama a small but genuine advantage. While the day-to-day swings of the news cycle (Bad GOP convention! Great Clinton speech! Romney wins debate! Biden beats Ryan!) make a lot of noise and move the polling around a little bit, they won't be enough for Romney to win. Obama's numbers were a bit inflated from a good convention and the 47% video before the debates. Lately they've been a bit deflated. On election day, I'm guessing Obama will get 2.x% of the popular vote more than Romney and win. Of course, there's always room for some big external event to turn the election around. But as I see it, the internal dynamics of the campaign lead to Obama winning. I'm really more curious about how the House will shake out, and what last-minute activity will shape Senate races.