Monday, October 1, 2012

When People Try To Push You Into Dumb Wars, It Looks Like This

Isabel Kershner and Rick Gladstone report that Israelis are confused about what Netanyahu's bomb diagram meant at the UN. And of course they are -- it wasn't actually a diagram meant to communicate useful information about anything. It was just an crude attempt to stoke fear of Iran, and nudge the US into a disastrous military conflict. I'm glad to see that people in the US mostly just made fun of him.

For context, it's good to take a look at Justin Logan's old post on estimates of when Iran would have the bomb.  Did you know that Iran was only a few months away from having two or three nuclear weapons in 1991?  And 8 to 10 years away in 1993?  They were still 8 years away in 1995, but made up enough ground to be 4 years away in 1996.  Then they were 5 years away in 1998, and maybe they already had one in 2000.  If you go by those estimates, it's not a problem for Iran to have the bomb, because they've had it forever now.
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