Saturday, October 27, 2012

Will Ron Paul Win Nevada For Democrats?

Elspeth Reeve tells me something I didn't know, in an article about the campaigns' ground operations: "The Nevada Republican Party was taken over by Ron Paul supporters, and the Romney campaign has had to create a shadow party in the state called Team Nevada." There's more background here.  Apparently something similar happened in Iowa. Both are early caucus states, so maybe that's why Ron Paul's people organized themselves so strongly there.

It makes me more confident about Obama's chances in Iowa and Nevada. The conventional wisdom is that Obama's ground game is better basically everywhere, but he may have an extra edge in those states due to poor Republican organization. Will it be enough to put Shelly Berkley over Dean Heller in the Senate race?  I doubt it, but Berkley's deficit in the polls is much less than the difference between Harry Reid's expected and actual performance two years ago.  We'll see what happens.

I was only joking before about how Democrats were sticking with the wrong view about marijuana legalization to keep the Ron Paul bloc intact and a headache for Republicans. But it seems like that's the dynamic.

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