The logic of stopping in Wisconsin and not Iowa is straightforward: the Obama campaign's early voting infrastructure has banked a much larger lead in the Hawkeye state. Likewise, Obama's early vote lead in Nevada makes his lead there that much more stable.
The six states in question represet Romney's three paths to victory. He can win Ohio, Florida, and then either WI+CO, or VA+any other state. Or he can lose Ohio and win all five remaining states. Here are the current Election Day forecasts from 538 for these states:
- Wisconsin 88%
- New Hampshire 75%
- Ohio 80%
- Colorado 63%
- Virginia 61%
- Florida 41%
1 comment:
This is why I've been saying for weeks that it all but comes down to FL, VA, and OH. There's a path for victory for Obama if he loses all three, but it's a pretty slender one. And there are paths to victory for Romney if he loses OH (even more slender) or VA (a little less slender, but still pretty thin), but not FL.
So I'd still bet that if Romney hits the trifecta of those three states, he wins the election, and if he loses any one of them, he's toast.
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