Thursday, November 1, 2012

Barack Obama's Final Weekend Campaign Travel Schedule

Team Obama has announced their final sprint towards Election Day, which has the President traveling to Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The logic of stopping in Wisconsin and not Iowa is straightforward: the Obama campaign's early voting infrastructure has banked a much larger lead in the Hawkeye state. Likewise, Obama's early vote lead in Nevada makes his lead there that much more stable.

The six states in question represet Romney's three paths to victory. He can win Ohio, Florida, and then either WI+CO, or VA+any other state. Or he can lose Ohio and win all five remaining states. Here are the current Election Day forecasts from 538 for these states:
  • Wisconsin 88%
  • New Hampshire 75%
  • Ohio 80%
  • Colorado 63%
  • Virginia 61%
  • Florida 41%
Needless to say, team Romney has their work cut out for themselves.
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