Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Everyone Loves Predictions... With Bonus Predictomatic Surprise!

I'm going to go with Jamelle's prediction of Obama winning 303-235. In other words, Romney gets FL and NC, but everything else that reasonable folk have called a swing state goes to Obama. Nick's prediction looks pretty good to me too, but I'm slightly more pessimistic about whether the unstoppable force of Obama GOTV can overcome the immovable object of Florida GOP voting barriers. I'm making a mental note to pay attention to the Ohio 2014 Secretary of State race, since that's who controls voting in Ohio.

At the Senate level, I'll go with Nick's prediction. Montana is the tightest race and thus the hardest to predict, but I think it's slightly more likely than even to go for us. North Dakota is the one I expect to be wistful about. I really have no idea what's going on in the House, but I don't rate the advantages of incumbency that highly. With the generic Congressional ballot tied, my feeling is that we'll barely miss a majority, and that will be the thing Team Blue wishes it'd focused on more this election.

And here's the surprise! (For those of you who haven't been sent there by nice people like Brad DeLong and Heebie at Unfogged yet.) I've started up this little site called VoteSeeing that will rank the presidential predictions for accuracy. So if you know of a major pundit prediction that you'd like to see ranked -- they just need to have an electoral map -- send it along and I'll put it on the list.

1 comment:

Nick Beaudrot said...

According to the GMU early vote tally, there were more early votes in 2012 than 2008 in Florida.