Thursday, December 18, 2008

I Realize Now That I Was Wrong

Three weeks after Election Day, I observed "At this point, in order for Franken to be ahead we have to believe that both candidates are predominately challenging Franken ballots (Coleman to get them thrown out, Franken to get them accepted). It's just highly implausible". Alternatively, one could believe that Norm Coleman was bringing a significantly higher share of illegitimate challenges than Al Franken. I didn't think this would happen; once you get into recount and challenge territory, there isn't much incentive to launch frivolous challenges.

I appear to have been wrong. Norm Coleman is just getting creamed on challenges. Even if the current pace slows down by 50%, it's likely that he will be behind once the challenged ballots are counted. Crazy stuff.
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