Thursday, December 18, 2008

I Realize Now That I Was Wrong

Three weeks after Election Day, I observed "At this point, in order for Franken to be ahead we have to believe that both candidates are predominately challenging Franken ballots (Coleman to get them thrown out, Franken to get them accepted). It's just highly implausible". Alternatively, one could believe that Norm Coleman was bringing a significantly higher share of illegitimate challenges than Al Franken. I didn't think this would happen; once you get into recount and challenge territory, there isn't much incentive to launch frivolous challenges.

I appear to have been wrong. Norm Coleman is just getting creamed on challenges. Even if the current pace slows down by 50%, it's likely that he will be behind once the challenged ballots are counted. Crazy stuff.

7 comments:

corvus said...

To be a troll for a moment, how does one's support for Franken intersect with one's feelings on Kennedy? By the way, I am amenable towards both.)

...a worati is a species of rodent, similar in physiology to a rat, though much larger, and much more likely to become aggressive when cornered.

MikeJ said...

I'm a fan of both also. Franken down 3 according to reporter on the live chat.

Nicholas Beaudrot said...

Well, Franken had to run for his seat, which is I think the big thing. If Paterson appoints a placeholder, and Caroline Kennedy runs in 2010, then I don't think I really have a problem with that.

MikeJ said...

MN Supremes rule on Coleman's suit. Granted in part, denied in part. Only 20 pages, but I haven't had a chance to read it yet.

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Other/2008%20Elections/Order.12.18.08.pdf

MikeJ said...

Patterson will appoint a placeholder and there will be an election in 2010. There's no reason why Kennedy shouldn't be that placeholder.

corvus said...

What Mike J said. I don't think Biden's placeholder has ever held elective office before either, and no one raised a stink about that. So what if people like a placeholder and nominate them in the primary, and elect them in the general?

...a turpla is a flying, silicon-based, turtle-like creature from Parallel Universe 363.

BruceMcF said...

If a person is interested in running in the upcoming Special, they are not a placeholder. The word for that is "incumbent Senator". A place-holder is known in advance to be resigning at the end of the Congress they are appointed to, or else they are not a placeholder.

And Biden's staffer has a lot more legislative experience than Ms. Kennedy ... ideally a placeholder will be able to hit the ground running. If Ms. Kennedy wants the job longer term, she'd have ample time to learn on the job. And given that there would be a special election in November, 2010, she'd have a lot of time to campaign around the state.

I would not be surpised if I ended up being an out of state supporter ... depending, of course, on her stand on NAFTA and the international economic policy of trading away the US industrial base in return for greater freedom to corporations to move wealth around.

But supporting her in an election is different to supporting a gubernatorial appointment.